SteadyOptions has your solution. Get educated about the nuances and risks of options trading. Have access to resources and be a resource to other traders. Get quick responses from the SteadyOptions team. Started by cwerdnaDecember 7, Posted December 7, Anyone here subscribe to www.
I think they've pitched the service to me before when I wasn't paying attention and knew nothing options. My email had a deal where I could get 2 strategies free for 60 days. I later got an update email that had another code for 2 more strats free for 60 days. I'm only paying for 1 strat right now I'm currently subscribed to iron condor, index calendar, vertical spread, collar and weeklies and seeing how they are. You just set how much you want to allocate per trade.
They sound out emails discussing the trade, risk, rationale, etc. They seem to be pretty active in taking profits, reducing risk, etc.
I asked them how it's done since I once didn't get a fill on an advisory that went out. Turns out I had insufficient buying power at the time and they don't want to take people into margin call.
As they explained "These orders fill at the same time the advisory is sent. All contracts are filled under a house account then allocated to individual accounts shortly after. That also explains how they can get the pricing on fills for everyone. So far, they seem ok but I haven't been on them for long. IIRC, I haven't hit any losses yet and have had some small to decent gainers. Some positions have been partly closed to take some gains. For others they've been rolling.
I did see one notification go out about a loss but I didn't have any position in that. The trade began before I subscribed.
Posted December 14, edited. In some notification emails of trades that don't involve me opened before I joinedI have seen some losses. On the SPY calendar All of this stuff was autotraded for me. Crossing my fingers that they can keep it up with lots of winners and few losers hopefully small ones. Posted December 14, I once accepted TOS's trial of Red Options, and I was very unimpressed with their methodology.
This was about three years ago. Perhaps it's different today. But they seem not to understand the nature of probabilities and options market pricing and risk. They made a lot of statements that were foolish and ignorant. Over time one would expect in aggregate either a wash or a loss if i recall from my tests.
When I called them up to discuss any of this, they didn't really seem interested. If they are still making their picks in the same way, I would attribute your recent success with them as pure luck.
Well, given their history I see at https: I have been thru some of the Investools training that well although, admittedly, I need to go back through some of it again, in more detail. The sample trades at https: Time Decay Theta also works in our favor as our short vertical loses value over the life of the trade. We profit in three out of four scenarios: I guess we will see. It looks like today I'll have a loss on one of their plays, a SPY double calendar.
That remaining risk was some December week 2 puts that expired worthless today.
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When you tried out their trial, did you turn on autotrade? Which strategies did you choose? Did you make money? Looking at the trade excerpt you posted, I don't see that as a good trade at all. Perhaps there are other aspects to the trade that you didn't post, but assuming the probability analysis is based around expiration time, the numbers don't add up in your favor.
Assume you did that trade times. The probabilities are definitely not in your favor. Not to mention the huge risk of a drawdown occurring. To answer your question, I never traded any of their recommendations after analyzing the trades they offered. It simply appeared that they find trades that have a high probability of success, while ignoring risk.
For example and I'm just making this up on the fly: Suppose I were to toss a fair coin six times. Eventually, probabilites do catch up with you.
And my experience three years ago with Red Option was that the kinds of trades they provide are really no different from that coin toss example. Sorry about highlighting I'm too lazy to remove it all while retaining the rest of the formatting. Sell the Jan 79 puts and buy the Jan 77 puts. IWM is the ETF that reflects the small cap Index. Shares have fallen today after hitting monthly highs just yesterday morning. IWM is now firmly above it day moving average, which becomes support to the downside and would work well for this bullish vertical.
We expect IWM shares to remain in a tight range and perhaps retrace higher into the end of the year. Volatility has begun to expand slightly in IWM over the last few sessions which increases the premium collected on short out-of-the-money verticals. We went out to the Jan monthly cycle to collect more premium in the vertical. We have 45 days to adjust or close this trade at Jan expiration. IWM has seen resurgence recently and the overall market looks to be trending higher.
We want to take advantage of the recent pull-back this afternoon and initiate the bullish directional vertical. We have good probabilities for the amount of credit collected vs. We will continuously monitor our positions to determine if adjustments need to be made or when to close out of the trade.
I have to head out right now but I'll comment more later. But hey, I'm just an options amateur. Posted December 15, Posted December 16, As a side note, a service that is affiliated with a brokerage has a HUGE conflict of interests. My impression was that they are more concerned about generating commissions for TOS than profits for their subscribers.
In the calendar service, they had a lot of cheap calendars in the 0. If you are paying 1. Why do you think they are so cheap and they auto-trade with TOS only?
The subscription fee is a very small part compared to commissions that they generate for TOS. Posted December 17, As a side note, a service that is affiliated with a brokerage is a HUGE conflict of interests. On your first point, that had also crossed my mind and more so as I've been examining how commissions heavy the trades tend to be. I agree that it is possibly a vehicle for them to generate commissions. I figure that if the service sucks results in net lossesthat they won't be able to have a sustainable business and will lose subscribers.
However, if there enough incoming new people to replace them But yes, the subscription fee per strat is tiny compared to the commissions. I wonder how other newsletters handle auto-trades across multiple brokerages? Maybe I should start another thread for that? To me, there'd be the same issue that we have here, where a trade alert goes out, adjustment, roll, closure, etc.
And, how far away should the limit be set? Did you ask to see their complete track record before starting trading? The results are not pretty. Collar strategy shows Your DD collar shows The question is how much you lose when you lose. Red Option Iron Condor strategy is a good example. They did 21 trades in16 winners and only 5 losers, but the overall results is Sure, that's what the deltas tell you, but any option trader that has ever looked at it and tracked it knows or hopefully knows that those are "theoretical" probabilities, and not actual probabilities.
I tried spreads and ICs all of the time. In trading IWM spreads this year, I ONLY opened a trade if it was outside of a 2SD probable move so However, out of 41 trades on IWM this year so far, 7 of them had to be adjusted or closed early.
This is not unique to any one instrument, it applies to everything. NEVER base your expected returns off of "probability of success. Of course that does not mean you can't still succeed at it -- just have to plan accordingly. While you might be right in general, the fact that 7 trades had to be adjusted is not necessarily an indication that the probability of success is not correct. Many times the underlying will go outside the range but retreat back by expiration.
That doesn't mean you should not adjust - in role of stock brokerage firm in the philippines, usually you should adjust much before the underlying gets to the sold strike.
My example obviously includes adjustments, but in any historical analysis, you'll find the probabilities are mistaken, often grossly so. The problem is those probabilities, for the most part, assume normal distribution some MM use logarithmic distributionbut that does not match reality.
There is not one stock in existence that, over any significant period, has any type of normal distribution. So in a single two month period, SIX out of nine options, that had LESS than a thirty percent chance of finishing in the money -- did.
Yes, this is an extreme example over a defined time period -- but it holds true on every single option there is over time. The theoretical probabilities simply don't forex door to door japan reality, and anyone who trades options needs to wrap their head around that or they won't understand the risk they're taking. So you are basically saying that over time, options underprice the risk?
I'm not sure I accept that. One of the edges of IC sellers is the fact that over time, IV tends to be slightly higher than HV.
Surfbar earn money is definitely behaving differently lately, but if red option autotrade go to any index, you will see that on average, IV is higher than HV.
So many people get very confused with probabilities. Those with no formal education in the subject can get definitely confused. But even those with a formal education in the subject easily can get off track. One area of confusion I see often is people thinking that processes, such as stock movement, follow probabilites, instead of super market stocks describing processes.
Probabilities are just mathematical descriptions based on past history and other considerations. The processes themselves know nothing about the probabilities.
They don't know when you had started counting your sequence, for instance. They have no memory.
How about the so-called gambler's paradox. A gambler is watching a roulette wheel and notices that it has landed on black ten times in a row. So he thinks that FOR SURE the next spin has to be a red since the chances of NOT getting a red in 11 spins is virtually zero. What the gambler has forgotten or, more likely simply ignorant of is that the roulette wheel has no memory. Again, the roulette wheel has no memory of what has occurred prior. The same is true with become stock broker nasdaq market probabilities.
Even if they were exact like the roulette wheel and stock market probabilites are surely not exactyou can use them only as guides into the future for a particular time range. But once the stock movement has started to occur, you need to at the very least recalculate the probabilities for whatever range of time is still of interest to you.
If vin diesel stock broker stock hasn't moved as much as it was "supposed to" have during the initial part of the time range, you cannot assume it will "make it up" in the latter part. If you think this, you are falling victim to a version of the gambler's paradox. Along the lines of what I is brk b stock a good buy said, Earn money testing video games seen traders completely misuse probabilities and standard deviations when attempting to make correct market decisions.
I once read a pseudo-scientific article written by someone whom I believe was sincere. His system went something like this. Throughout the trading day he constructs a bell-shaped normal curve of a stock based on its intraday movements.
If a majority of the bell curve seems to be being built on either the left or the right side of the bell, he says there is a great chance that the rest of the bell "has to be" built on the opposite side. Thus, he would use this "knowledge" to day trade the latter half of the trading day.
The errors in his thinking are numerous. One of the errors, of course, is that the stock movement doesn't "know" its on someone's left- forex kursy szkolenia right-side of a bell. Indeed, if he had instead constructed a bell in real time with a total time range of only the first half of the day instead of the full dayhe would have ended up with a completely different bell that is is "filled in" on both sides.
Everything about his method is arbitrary including the time range. There are an infinite number of time ranges and an infinite number of possible histogram bin possibilities when constructing starbucks stock market graph histogram.
Yet he swore by this "scientific" system. Lots what does pps mean in the stock market ignorance abounds. Posted December 18, edited. I'm embarrassed to say I did not long story.
I did request it earlier today and you're right on those. It is not pretty at all. I've discontinued autotrade on all my subscribed strategies for now and well let the remainders get closed per their recommendations. It's rather dismaying and am surprised or maybe I shouldn't be? They calculated collars differently than I did but I see where they're coming from. The way they calculated is a little odd to me. I also got their track record.
Double double last year made money but was only 3. That strat seems somewhat commission heavy as well due to the of legs. Weeklys last year lost At least they seem to be decent stock pickers.
My only reservations about it are that it ties up a lot how to make money in pawn shops capital for potentially a long time and something very bad could happen to a stock where the premium from the call isn't anywhere near sufficient to make up for the loss. This has been a co movements of stock markets the case and interesting discussion.
SMACKDOWN was another code I'd received in marketing email which I did use. I'm not sure if that still works. Posted December 18, Covered calls worked well, but don't forget that we bike und outdoor market rostock schutow in the up trending market most of Simply doing CC on SPY would probably red option autotrade better results with less work. Double double worked not bad, but like you mentioned, look at the commissions.
Those are 4 leg trades, so assuming 1. In the example you gave, the article writer was assuming the market HAS to revert to the mean, which is just idiotic, if that was the case then, over time, the markets would have no movement. Your roulette example was good. Stock market probabilities DO change every tick. They do NOT follow a normal or logarithmic distribution -- the number of outliers is always "improbable," but yet it happens in almost any market conditions.
I got into quite a heated argument with an MBA finance professor here in town over the inefficiencies in option pricing. I challenged him to find any stock, or any index, that matched the theory. We went through all the major indexes and probably 50 stocks -- and NONE of them did. I spent quite a lot of time over a number of years tracking "option" probabilities -- and the daily probability values simply forex brokers micro lots match up to what actually occurs.
Recently they have been greatly understating risk which tends to happen in low volatility markets. In they were greatly overstating risk as generally happens in times of high volatility. I'm not saying coles opening hours boxing day perth always underprice risk -- sometimes they overprice it.
What I am saying is that the assumed probabilities are NOT the real probabilities. Take Robert's roulette example. Over bunnings warehouse anzac day trading hours, its been experimentally proven, that the odds balance out. That's NOT how option probabilities work.
On Tuesday the price has jumped to On Wednesday let's say the price has jumped to Yet then on Thursday, the price plummets back to On Friday it goes to Well, your Monday probability was "correct" and your Tuesday and Wednesday were "wrong. This is true for the simple fact that option pricing assumes either a normal distribution of price movement or logarithmic pricing of stock movement AND prices in a measurement of volatility.
Due to the fact that assumptions a and are FALSE assumptions and that volatility is fluid -- you end up with inaccurate option probabilities. If this wasn't true, I'd have retired filthy stinking rich by now. Simple -- I would run a scan every single day across all options, finding the "misspriced" ones -- e.
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Yet, over any significant time period, this does not hold true. MOST people refuse to accept this, academics in particular. But that's simply a refusal to accept reality. I occasionally needle the professor I know, offering to pay a large sum of money, when he can produce any stock or index that behaves how the option probabilities predict -- in several years he has yet to find one real world example that matches the option probabilities. And again -- sometimes the probabilities understate risk and sometimes overstate -- I've yet to find out a reliable way to make that determination, but my spread models try too -- I'm constantly tweaking them.
Taleb does a much better job explaining this than I do -- but simply put, probabilities in trading do not match real life outcomes. I'm not sure about stocks but index vol is rich on the long run look at the performance of indices like PUT and BXM. You can maybe argue whether market prices tail risk correctly too cheap? As you say yourself probabilities change every day so the probability of any option to end up in the money today is just an estimate and therefore very likely to be wrong hence the market reassesses that probability every day that doesn't mean for me that the option model that the market is using is wrong big time again maybe with the exception of tail risk.
Even if it is wrong - every decission I make about the other major price impacts mainly spot and imlied vol will have a much bigger impact on my trading. Unless you really have a market neutral delta, gamma, vega portfolio which buys and sells options with 'wrong' probabilties it matter much more where the market is going spot and IV. I also want to apologize for completely hijacking this thread. So for instance, if you wanted to figure out the accuracies of the AAPL weeklies, on AAPL right now I would enter in my log the following:.
Then, at expiration, mark the expiring price and which ones finished ITM.
Tomorrow the above will change of course, so my table will be different. Over a period of a year, you'll end up with entries per "percentage" trading days in the year. That's a fairly large sample. However, that simply doesn't happen. Posted December 19, Maybe RobertB is right The problem is not necessarily theoretical probabilities.
The Iron Condor strategy is a good example. Like I mentioned, they did 21 trades in16 winners and only 5 losers, but the overall results is Here is the problem: ASSUMING probabilities are correct obviously I think they are not and others do, but lets take that out of the discussionKim's point is a good one, and one I really hope all option traders understand. This might seem like a "break even" strategy -- but it's not.
You NEVER get the theoretical return, if from commission loss only. You also typically have slippage, and if you close out a trade instead of letting it expire, you'll have even less of a gain. If you are REALLY good e.
What do I do? I take 2 SD trades I "hope" this gives me a big enough error margin, closing early, and slippage. If we toss out these past three months, I've been quite successful at it.
This week in particular has not been fun. That said, the problem with the Red Option newsletter is as Kim noted. If you don't understand this last sentence please either post a message or send KIm or I a note. Both can be totally off too high or too low if you compare them to reality and with the benefit of hindsight once the trade has expired or is closed.
ProCognis FASr Option Valuation Models
Which brings me back to my point of: Posted December 2, Posted April 6, I have used Red Option for the past 3 months. They have made numerous trades with very few wins. My advice is to learn to do it yourself before you allow them to trade for you. I just do not understand if you a using a computer system how can you have so many wrong picks for options. Only 75 emoticons maximum are allowed. Display as a link instead. Our options trading advisory service offers high quality options education and actionable trade ideas.
We implement mix of short and medium term options trading strategies based on Implied Volatility. We do not offer investment advice. We are not investment advisors. The information contained herein should not be construed as an investment advice and should not be considered as a solicitation to buy or sell securities. Community Software by Invision Power Services, Inc. Topics All Content This Topic This Forum Advanced Search.
View New Content Topics All Content This Topic This Forum Advanced Search. Reply to this topic Start new topic. Too bad they can't autotrade on IB. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites. Here's what my profit so far after commissions by trades. I joined on Nov 6th.
Edited December 14, by cwerdna. Here's excerpt of an email for an IWM trade they opened earlier this month: Thanks for the further information. Trade Advisory December 4, RED Option Strategy: Sell the Jan 79 puts and buy the Jan 77 puts Trade Price: Short Term Buying Power Reduction: RED Option Original Trade Price: Hehehe, I wish I were an amateur like you! I checked the service few years ago and I agree with Robert, but maybe things have changed. Chris, While you might be right in general, the fact that 7 trades had to be adjusted is not necessarily an indication that the probability of success is not correct.
Xfanman and cwerdna like this. Equity calendar shows Index calendar shows Your DIA calendar shows Great post, and I think there are two important points to be taken: As you say yourself probabilities change every day so the probability of any option to end up in the money today is just an estimate and therefore very likely to be wrong hence the market reassesses that probability every day that doesn't mean for me that the option model that the market is using is wrong big time again maybe with the exception of tail risk Even if it is wrong - every decission I make about the other major price impacts mainly spot and imlied vol will have a much bigger impact on my trading.
So for instance, if you wanted to figure out the accuracies of the AAPL weeklies, on AAPL right now I would enter in my log the following: One of the reasons why I don't offer auto-trading: Your content will need to be approved by a moderator.
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Hey guys new here but have been trading for about 2 years now. Has anyone ever tried or heard of this guy Sheridan Options Mentoring? Are these classes any good I am looking to refine some of my Iron Condor techniques. Navigation Home About Subscribe Blog Education Center Performance SO Newsletter Forums FAQs. The information contained herein should not be construed as an investment advice and should not be considered as a solicitation to buy or sell securities Contact Us Disclaimer Cancellation Policy.
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